For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Last August, when Dublin put Tyrone to the sword in the All Ireland football quarter final, Colm O’Rourke mentioned in the post game commentary on the Sunday Game that this was a huge milestone for the Tyrone team. His view was that when the end comes for a great side like that, it tends to come with a bang rather than gradually. Now Tyrone could take several steps backwards and still be a fine side, but the outright odds on offer at the moment (11/10 with Ladbrokes, 5/4 with Powers) suggest that they would be 1/3 against Fermanagh on Sunday and 4/7 against the winner of Down and Derry. That simply can’t be correct unless they are worthy of consideration with the Corks and Kerrys of this world all over again.

In the last two years of championship, Down have done at least as much as Tyrone. They are a division one side, while Tyrone are deservedly in the second tier. Derry traditionally perform well in this competition, they’ve won three games against arguably three better teams than anything Tyrone have had to play, and all three sides have plenty of their better footballers available for selection. Anything other than 10/11 or 5/6 Tyrone outright in a final against either of these two sides is simply way too short.

Of course the problem with taking on bookies in outright betting is that it can be a lot easier to identify the bad value than the good. Even more so in a case like this, where the over-round is quite high and the bookie has to be very wrong to offer even a little bit of value.

What could change the goalposts however is that for the second half of last night’s match, Fermanagh looked as if they could cause Tyrone problems. Once the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tightly fighting jersey that is Seamus Quigley came onto the field Fermanagh looked a lot more potent up front and they dug deep to come very close to salvaging the game. Any team will tell you that it’s difficult to beat the same side twice in a row, particularly in a contest like this where the prize would be a huge boost to Fermanagh but would be of little value to Tyrone.

Powers go 2/5 Tyrone to win the game while Hills are much more aggressive on the Red Hand men and offer them at 8/15. The true price probably lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that it’s possibly a 67/33 split as to which of the West Ulster counties makes it to Sunday week’s final.

With such a very live possibility of Fermanagh making it to the final, the value appears to lie with Down, currently 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Followers of this column are already behind the Down men, but if you aren’t already, that price is well worth an investment. It will be close enough to accurate if Tyrone make the final, while if there is an upset in the second game at the Morgan Athletic Grounds, it will almost certainly mean that Down backers – providing of course they get through their semi-final meeting with Derry – will be sitting pretty.

Derry themselves cannot be discounted as the Oak Leaf men are playing some fine football and wins over Donegal, Cavan and UUJ cannot be sniffed at – nonetheless the standard from now on will be that bit higher and it’s hard to see the 3/1 as anything other than a fair price at best.

Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

And so, we come to the race for Christmas number one – the real Christmas number one. In the race to become the leading Gaelic Football county in Ireland, there’s no shortcut available, such as going through a reality TV show – it takes years of hard, painstaking work and as Donegal manager Jim McGuinness will certainly testify, there’s no point in playing to impress the paying public!

As always, counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, followed by our prediction as to whether the county will be moving up or down the chart in 2012.

8. Tyrone (6 – Disimprovement)

Your columnist was sorely tempted to court publicity by ranking the Red Hand men outside of the top ten, and based on 2011 alone, we could have stood over that view. Their failure to make a real push in division two was worrying, particularly the dropped point against a very mediocre Meath team when anything less than a win was likely to prove fatal. However it would be foolish to ignore the incredible achievements of this county over the past decade. However while they should go well in the league this year, we expect them to be found out in the championship. Dublin and Donegal each exposed weaknesses in their team and tactics and while Mickey Harte is beyond criticism, it could be fast approaching the time when the players need to hear a new voice at the helm.

7. Down (8 – Disimprovement)

2011 was a disappointing year and the news that talisman Martin Clarke, along with their incredible young prospect Caolan Mooney, will be playing AFL instead of NFL next spring is deeply worrying from a Down perspective. Modern defences appear to have figured out how to counteract the threat of Benny Coulter and incredibly, the question marks surrounding the spine of the defence and indeed the midfield remain. Their scoring power gives them a chance against anybody, particularly in Croke Park, if they get back there. That’s a big “if” though.

6. Donegal (7 – Slight improvement)

Firstly, ranking Donegal outside of the top four even though they made the semi-finals may seem harsh, but their 2011 approach will only get you so far against good teams and right now, they would be underdogs, with this odds compiler at least, against any of the five counties yet to be named in this column. However the reason we think they could be destined to climb the ladder is the fact that they will be acutely aware that they need to evolve their approach and Jim McGuinness has both the mental acuity to recognise this and the quality of player available to implement a variety of different approaches. His players will follow him wherever he leads them, and to see how strongly he reacted to Kevin Cassidy’s part in Declan Bogue’s book, even though nothing was said, was instructive. Even more instructive was how none of the other Donegal players spoke out on behalf of Cassidy. They want to be part of Donegal’s footballing future, and rightly so.

5. Mayo (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After they laboured under John O’Mahony and struggled to deliver the success that the county craves, Ballintubber’s James Horan had a very promising first season in charge of Mayo, guiding his team to a Connacht title and a hugely significant All Ireland quarter final win over Cork. That result over the then All Ireland champions illustrated the potential that lies in this group of footballers, but the gulf in class in their All Ireland semi final meeting with Kerry made it very clear how much work remains to be done. As modern midfielders evolve into more mobile, all round footballers, the O’Shea partnership remains something of a throwback to a bygone era. It would a brave man who would bet against the Breaffy men on a tight pitch where the ability to play good contact football is paramount, but if the goal is to beat Dublin and Kerry, one suspects that a makeover will be needed in that section since their immobility would be taken apart against that standard of opponent.

4. Kildare (4 – Improvement)

No team was treated as badly by lady luck in 2011 as the Lily Whites, and on the grounds that the break of the ball evens itself out over time, they clearly have to be well watched in 2012. Kieran McGeeney has complete and utter respect from his players and crucially, he has them implementing a system whereby the success of the system is dependent on their workrate and sticking to the plan, rather than the mercurial talent of a group of individuals. Even John Doyle, the star man of the squad, is being deployed in a more workmanlike role. For as long as they continue to push on, they will continue to improve, and Kildare should come very, very close to All Ireland honours in 2012. The danger for the county is that in every sense, they are burning a lot of fuel. Players cannot continue to put in this level of effort for too long, while equally their county board can ill afford to continue to underwrite one of if not the most expensive county team to run in Ireland. When their star does burn out we suspect it will crash spectacularly, but in the meantime they continue to ascend.

3. Cork (3 – Slight improvement)

The Rebels appeared to regress in 2011, losing in Munster yet again and coughing up an early lead to go out somewhat pitifully against Mayo. As such they had to be downgraded from their top spot, however it would be easy to forget the horrendous injury list that Conor Counihan had to deal with. You can’t lose so many players of that calibre, mainly in the one sector of the field, and expect to be unaffected. With a full strength panel to choose from in 2012, they should find themselves right there in contention yet again.

2. Kerry (1 – Disimprovement)

Judging Kerry based on their 2012 showing is difficult, in that they did what they had to do in the championship, but until the final, they never really had to go into their higher gears. They were fortunate to get what was a relatively kind run to the final, but they took full advantage and there was no question but that Dublin got what decisions were going in that Croke Park decider. Nonetheless the issue of their ageing panel remains a very real one and the possibility that Colm Cooper will be denied a necessary operation until after March because of his involvement with Dr Crokes is far from ideal. Their younger footballers don’t seem to be of the necessary calibre so we’re going to stick our necks out and say that Kerry will slip a little in 2012.

1. Dublin (2 – No change)

It may seem lazy to just put the winners in the number one slot, but for several years now, people have said that Dublin lacked the ability to deliver on the really big day. This year they rode their luck a little certainly, but they also played some very good football when they needed to and to rescue the All Ireland final as they did was very impressive. The self belief that they will take from that can only be beneficial and with that in mind, no one county looks better poised to take the biggest prizes in the game in 2012.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

In football, as indeed in all sports, timing is everything. It can be timing in the execution of a skill, timing when to make your move, or timing when to step away and accept defeat. Most of all, it’s about making sure you’re in the right place at the right time.

Playing championship football in Croke Park in August is certainly the right place and the right time for both Tyrone and Dublin this week, but despite lagging some way behind the boys in blue all year long, the Red Hand county appear to have timed their return to form immaculately, so much so that they could be a very attractive 11/8 shot with Ladbrokes this weekend. Dublin were the more widely fancied team all year, but they seem to be spluttering at just the wrong time, while Tyrone on the other hand are gathering momentum just when their supporters would have hoped.

All year long, Dublin have been the big name, widely regarded as the most likely team to upset the Munster hegemony. They edged out both Cork and Kerry in their round robin NFL matches in Croke Park before letting slip the final against the Rebels, while the earlier part of their Leinster championship campaign was also hugely impressive. They cut through a decent Laois team with ease and played some fine football against Kildare as well.

No matter what one might think about the late Bernard Brogan free that decided the game, to be in a position to take that opportunity after playing half the match with fourteen men was no mean achievement and Dublin can be proud of the way they repelled the high octane Kildare machine.

However the Leinster final did not paint the Dubs in as kind a light and indeed but for Anthony Masterson’s mistake that caused the first Dublin goal, it could have been the Dubs instead of Wexford who were playing Limerick in the backdoor and facing Kerry last week. Moreover, that Leinster success, combined with the knock on effect of Armagh’s draw with Wicklow, means that Dublin now are four weeks out of action, widely acknowledged as just long enough for a team to lose their sharpness.

Tyrone manager Mickey Harte has long argued that the current system is unfair on provincial winners, however his reiteration of those comments this week smacks of mischief. The question marks of Dublin’s mental strength remain unresolved, and if Harte is in the media positing that the Leinster champions are at a disadvantage, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that those doubts will feed through into the Dublin players and they will deep down begin to doubt themselves.

Tyrone have the experience and the confidence that comes with success and if any team is perfectly suited to taking advantage of some mental wobbles from the Dubs, it’s the 2008 All Ireland champions.

If we were to plot the form of both teams on a graph from January through to August, it’s fair to say that Dublin would be much higher up the Y axis for most of the year – but with three good qualifier wins in the bag and a Croke Park outing under their belts, now could be that one narrow little window where Tyrone are a match for the Leinster Champions and the graphs intersect.

Certainly if Mickey Harte got to choose how the two teams would have prepared for this game, his scenario wouldn’t have differed too much from what has happened, with the possible exception of Tyrone’s Division 2 league campaign. Pat Gilroy would not have chosen four weeks off, he would not have chosen a flat Leinster final and he surely would not have chosen the ongoing uncertainty over his best midfield partnership.

Tyrone’s ducks all appear to be a in a row here and while they offer less long term potential than the Dubs, it still could very easily be a Red Letter day for the Red Hand men. 11/8 is certainly worth taking anyway.

Longford vs Tyrone

Longford might not be a big name in terms of the race for the All Ireland senior football championship, but rest assured Tyrone did not want this fixture at all and a one point win would be readily seized by any Tyrone supporter if it was offered to them right now.

Of course Tyrone have the better players and many people felt that they were the better team in their Ulster semi-final against Donegal. However this time last year they faced an Ulster semi-final against Down, and the contrast between the two games is stark. Against Down, Tyrone got off to a bad start but slowly and inexorably took control of the fixture, suffocating the life out of their opponents. Against Donegal they were the beneficiaries of the good start and with Donegal unable to play free flowing attacking football simply by nature of the way they were lined out, they should have had enough about themselves to close out a three or four point win. Instead they got drawn into a dogfight and came off second best against the younger, hungrier dog.

Now they face a trip to Pearse Park, with Longford in flying form after a big win over their Cavan neighbours, and the whole squad moving freely under Glen Ryan. Seán McCormack has provided a nice alternative threat to Brian Kavanagh in the Longford full forward line, their defence is incredibly tenacious and hugely under-rated, and at home they will fear no-one.

Tyrone still have plenty of know-how and should find a way to win, but they don’t look to have the firepower to blow Longford away. Ladbrokes are standing out in the marketplace with 11/10 about Longford plus four and if they’ve made the effort to draw in money, it seems rude not to respond with a moderate bet.

Armagh vs Wicklow

The national consensus on this fixture is that if it were played in Aughrim, Wicklow would have a real chance. They wouldn’t. Armagh got blindsided by a wonderful Derry performance in the Ulster semi-final but it doesn’t suddenly make them a bad team, while the most significant aspect to Wicklow’s home win over Sligo was the fact that Mick O’Dwyer actually used some substitutes. He can field whoever he likes here, Armagh are operating on a different level and Wicklow’s old style football using Seánie Furlong as a target man will get them nowhere in Armagh. Money buyers could take Armagh/Armagh double result at 1/3, while another option could be 7/4 about Armagh scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Laois vs Kildare

This fixture will undoubtedly be a huge test for the character of this Kildare team as nobody could condemn them for feeling hard done by after their last outing in Croke Park. It would be easy to suggest that the last thing they needed now was a local derby against a resurgent Laois team who would be only too delighted to crush their dreams for the year, however this Kildare team is fuelled by passion, commitment and a ridiculous level of energy and drive. This fixture is actually perfect for them. When the bright lights of Croke Park seems far away, there’s nothing like the pleasure of putting one over on your near neighbours to concentrate the mind and get you through a round of the qualifers and get you a step closer to relevance.

In every championship match they’ve played this year and last, the correct betting play has been waiting until half time and then backing Kildare in running on whatever handicap or match market is available. This could be the game where Kildare finally start the match well. This will be a very well attended game in front of the TV cameras, and with the Mullaghbawn dimension to really spice things up. Kildare/Kildare double result is our recommendation, while this could also be a good time to dabble in Ladbrokes’ “Dream Start” market. 4/1 about Kildare to get the first three scores, while still seething internally at the injustice they suffered.

Meath vs Galway

When the prices for this match were first posted, yours truly raised an eyebrow. Yes Galway were disgracefully bad in their one championship outing this year, and yes, the stock of Connacht football is at an all time low. But still, 5/2 about a bad division one team beating a bad division two side? Hard to fathom.

Then the Galway team was released appeared to contain a lot of positive changes, including the return of Michael Meehan and debuts for a few very talented young footballers. Still 5/2. Then today, the Racing Post Goalpost supplement comes out, and there is a veritable chorus of opinion that Meath should win well?

Time may highlight the flaws in the judgement of your columnist, but right now, it’s hard not to feel like the small boy in the fable of the Emporor’s New Clothes. This Meath team, while heavily laden with individual talent, has done nothing this year to command this type of respect. They beat Louth well, but frankly this column would have been a lot more impressed if they had scored 2-14 than 5-8. This Meath team is not scoring points all year, and only once has scored more than 14 times. They’ve relied on goals to carry them through matches, and that’s a risky strategy.

As for Galway’s problems, well undoubtedly they exist, but too much is being made of their Connacht Semi-Final defeat to Mayo. Yes the standard of football was poor, but they were away from home playing Connacht championship, renewing one of the biggest rivalries in football, with their main attacker out injured and on a truly horrendous day for football. Yes they had a bad day, but the media reaction has been completely overdone. While several players underperformed, Tomás O’Flaharta has the luxury of being able to bring in All Ireland under-21 winners to freshen up the squad, which is a nice option to have.

Meath are probably entitled to be narrow favourites here, but 4/6 would be fair, not 4/9. Ladbrokes are joint best in the market at 5/2 about Galway and while the Tribesmen are the type of team that could decide not to bother and lose badly, if they do take to the field in Páirc Tailteann with a real drive to prove their doubters wrong, they are well capable of a win. That price is way out of line and well worth taking.

Comfortable wins for Cork, Kerry and Dublin over the weekend confirmed that while there might yet be a long way to go in the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, there remains little doubt about the leaders in the race to take the overall honours for 2011.

The upcoming battles between Cork and Kerry in the Munster Final and indeed the Leinster semi-final between Kildare and Dublin will undoubtedly ask a lot more questions of the big three, but right now Ladbrokes are taking 75% out of their book from the first three in the betting and with the possible exception of Kildare, no other county has shown anything like the kind of form that suggests they can beat one of the market leaders, never mind two three.

Tyrone certainly didn’t stand out from the pack in scraping past Monaghan in Healy Park and it seems counter intuitive that Ladbrokes chose not to push Tyrone further out in the aftermath of this win. On the face of it Mickey Harte’s men have taken one step closer to their goals this year but they were definitely hanging on by a thread at the end of the game and that was against an inexperienced Monaghan group who were down to thirteen men by the final whistle.

Some analysts were making too much of Monaghan’s absentees in the run up to this game but if that Monaghan team met Laois in the qualifiers they would be no shorter than 8/11 in the betting, and yet the contrast between the manner of Tyrone’s win and that of Dublin was stark.

Much of the commentary in the aftermath of Dublin’s win has focussed on the paucity of Laois’ challenge, something that surprised this column among others, but that’s doing a dis-service to Dublin’s defensive unit which denied Laois even the sniff of a goal chance, and the patience and depth of the Dublin attack which kept plugging away and taking chances even in spite of the incredible saves made by Eoin Culliton in the Laois goal. The ability to bring in players like Mossy Quinn and Eoghan O’Gara puts a serious gear change capability at Pat Gilroy’s disposal and that form certainly stacks up with what Cork and Kerry did against desperately poor opposition in Munster.

The wild card of the weekend was Kildare, who overcame a half time deficit and yet another woeful display of shooting to comfortably beat Meath and set up an intriguing battle with Dublin in the Leinster semi-final. Again, the analysis of the game has centred upon Graham Geraghty’s disallowed goal and Brian Farrell’s second half dismissal, but such simplistic commentary serves only to gloss over the general flow and pattern of a game that Kildare absolutely owned for most of the second half. Even if Geraghty’s goal had been allowed it would only have been Meath’s fourth score in the second half, a statistic that illustrates perfectly how the Kildare back line suffocated their opponents.

Crucially however, in terms of future progress, Kildare’s defensive system doesn’t prevent them breaking forward with power and pace and manager Kieran McGeeney won’t worry unduly about his team kicking wides in any game where they win by two clear goals, as they did against Wicklow and again here.

The continuous kicking of wides might not be appealing to those who would choose to compare this Kildare team to great All Ireland winning sides of the past that were laden with free-scoring sharp shooters, but Kieran McGeeney doesn’t have those kind of players at his disposal right now – with the obvious exception of John Doyle – and he should hardly be castigated for putting in place a structure that delivers a game winning tally despite that shortfall. Equally any team with a ball winning capacity like Kildare’s shouldn’t be worried about losing possession by way of kicking the ball over the dead line frequently.

Kildare are in much better health than Tyrone right now and while the first three places in the betting for the All Ireland title cannot be contested, there is a definite case for suggesting that the Lily-whites should be next in the list, rather than an ageing Ulster county that needed a lot of help from Meath referee Cormac Reilly to secure their place in the Ulster semi final.

Plenty of interesting games this weekend. Tyrone and Monaghan make their summer bow at Healy Park in a repeat of last year’s Ulster Final. Monaghan came in to that game with high hopes on the back of high scoring wins over Fermanagh and Armagh. They were extremely well supported in the market, no bigger than 5/4 when David Coldrick threw-in at Clones.

What followed was an enormous disappointment to the Farney as they were comfortably beaten while registering a pitifully low tally of 0-7. What was set to be the glory day of Banty McEneaney’s reign at Monaghan ended in dejection. A four point defeat to Kildare six days later ended Monaghan’s summer. And with the eventual departure of their manager, a memorable chapter in Monaghan football met a dissonant cadence.

It hasn’t been easy picking up the pieces since. Damien Freeman retired, Tommy Freeman emigrated, as did Rory Woods. Kieran Hughes picked up a long term injury, while the queue out the treatment room door for less serious twinges, tweaks and strains does little to boost confidence.

A team that in optimal condition was 10 points off Tyrone last summer now faces them with what can at best be called serious gaps in personnel. 5/4 to beat Tyrone last year, 11/4 this year is perhaps the most telling indicator of how this transitional Monaghan team ranks in the minds of the betting industry and its ever knowledgeable clients.

What of Tyrone? Ulster champions in three of the last four years, and All-Ireland winners the other, yet always the doubts that battle-weariness has infested Mickey Harte’s side. They may have been on the road longer than Forrest Gump, but they still have enough in them to win this home fixture and cover the 3 point spread at 10/11.

While his former troops put Tyrone to the test, Banty’s new platoon Meath get their Leinster campaign underway against Kildare at Croke Park. We make Kildare 4/7 favourites, offer 15/2 the draw and its 7/4 Meath. Its very hard to know what to expect from Meath, and just as Seamus McEneaney stunned the GAA world by putting Darren Hughes in goal last season, he has done it again by calling the seemingly retired Graham Geraghty in to the panel. Whether its the act of a genius or a madman only simplistic hindsight will tell, but there is no doubt that it is a poor reflection on the current crop of Meath’s forwards that such a measure was taken.

Kildare have had an unfair share of serious knee injuries, and reshuffled in their win over Wicklow to the extent that one of the game’s great forwards John Doyle was drafted in to midfield. There’s still plenty of attacking threat in the Kildare team; Alan Smith and James Kavanagh will test any defence. The problem with Kildare is their lack of efficiency in converting chances to scores. They will either become less profligate or pay dearly for it this season.

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