For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Logic would dictate that of the four O’Byrne Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, the battle between Meath and Louth should be the trickiest to call. After all, the Wee County are the only team yet to line out in this competition – not that a facile win over Kilkenny would have told us anything – and so they are difficult to assess in advance of their battle with Meath in what should be a keenly contested local derby.

As we discussed in this column earlier in the week, the psychological hold that Meath have over their neighbours to the East is significant. The Royal County have historically enjoyed a great run of success against Louth and the controversial Leinster football final of 2010 has only added to that reputation. However we were also quick to dismiss Louth from our outright calculations because of reports that they were going to be fielding a very understrength team in this fixture due to injury and other considerations.

Now while no team with five debutants can be considered “strong”, the news that experienced regulars Paddy Keenan and Dessie Finnegan have been passed fit is of course a boost, while Ray Finnegan, Brian Donnelly, Derek Crilly, Derek Maguire and Andy McDonnell will bring plenty of intercounty craft and know how to the table as well. If we also factor in the range of options that Peter Fitzpatrick will have available to him on the bench, then this is actually a quite decent team by O’Byrne Cup standards. In fact if a bookmaker was to bet on which of the two counties taking part on Sunday will field more of their O’Byrne Cup team in the championship, Louth would be long odds on to send a greater proportion into battle in May and June.

All of this makes the price of 11/4 about Louth with Ladbrokes and Boyles look very appealing. We’ll be the first to admit that we recommended opposing Meath last week at 11/4 and the Royals were full value for their three point win against Wexford on that occasion, but in games like this, with little or nothing at stake, it’s too hard to ignore a big price like that. Certainly prices like 4/11 and 1/3 about Meath make no appeal whatsoever.

Elsewhere in the O’Byrne competitions, this columnist finds it difficult to understand why DIT are favoured to beat Westmeath in their shield contest which throws in at 2pm in Kinnegad this Sunday. DIT are a very different team in 2012 when compared to 010 and 2011 when they were genuine Sigerson cup contenders. Diarmuid Connolly, Kieran Martin, Conor Lynam, Gareth Bradshaw and Tom Cunniffe are among the intercounty players that have left the college, and they simply haven’t replaced those players with others of a similar standard. Kildare cut through them with ease last week and offered the students few opportunities other than from free kicks. Meanwhile Westmeath were soundly beaten by Offaly but that result was largely down to which side showed the better finishing ability in front of goal.

Westmeath will improve considerably for last week’s outing and while they won’t slice through DIT as easily as Kildare did, they should be favourites to come through, not 6/4 underdogs as they are with Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes. We are slightly hesitant to recommend a substantial bet here since there has been early money for the students this week and we don’t take the decision to go against the flow of money in games like this lightly. Nonetheless only someone in O’Connor Park last week could appreciate quite how even that midlands derby was and based on that, Westmeath have a great chance of securing a home win at the Kinnegad venue.

O’Byrne Cup and Shield Recommendations

Meath vs Louth: Louth to win @ 11/4 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes)

Westmeath vs DIT: Westmeath to win @ 6/4 (Powers, Ladbrokes)

Unlike the McKenna Cup, discussed in our most recent column, the O’Byrne Cup as a betting event is loaded with pitfalls. We know that certain teams will be trying harder than others, and we know that certain teams will be at completely different fitness levels – however it’s not always easy to anticipate which teams will be which.

Equally, Leinster college teams are much less predictable, even from one week to the next. Take Athlone IT in 2011 – in the first round of the Cup competition, they shipped a 2-15 to 0-4 hiding from Louth. The following weekend, they were being cursed by accumulator punters all across Ireland as they held Laois to a draw in the first round of the O’Byrne shield. As such, betting recommendations on this competition can be somewhat akin to directions on how to get to mass going through the fields. You could get where you’re going bright and early all right, but if you’re not careful you’ll have destroyed a good pair of shoes in the process.

Now that we’ve got that ridiculous metaphor behind us, let’s look at Offaly vs Westmeath in O’Connor Park. For the guts of half a century this was one of the most one sided rivalries in football. For every narrow win that Westmeath secured in a lowly league or O’Byrne Cup match, Offaly had three narrow wins and a hiding or two to boot. Westmeath were unable to get a championship win over their southerly neighbours for love nor money, even in 1997 when Offaly’s ultimately successful Leinster championship run was almost derailed in Tullamore in the first round.

Then in 2004 Offaly shot sixteen wides, Wesmeath shot six and one of them by Fergal Wilson was awarded as a score, the Lake County ended up 0-11 to 0-10 ahead and a psychological hold was broken at long last. Since then both counties have had good days and bad days against each other, and no obvious trend has emerged. Looking at the players available for Sunday’s battle in O’Connor Park, predicting a winner is no less difficult. Offaly are without their three senior players from last year in Ciarán McManus, Scott Brady and Karol Slattery, Niall McNamee is unavailable due to injury and their team contains a lot of fresh blood but a distinct shortage of proven players. Certainly this writer can’t recall the last time that any team went to battle with a full back and centre back both around 5 foot 9 in height.

Westmeath will be missing a few injured players, all of their Garrycastle contingent and of course will also be short John Heslin, while Francis Boyle and Brendan Murtagh have decided to throw their lot in with the Westmeath hurling team for 2012 and give complete commitment to manager Brian Hanley. That in turn is a huge hole in Pat Flanagan’s resources, perhaps more than he could handle. However Denis Glennon has shown in preseason matches that he’s in form, and in a match with little concrete information, one blue chip forward is enough to justify a small bet on Westmeath at 11/8.

The second O’Byrne Cup match worthy of interest tomorrow has to be the meeting of Meath and Wexford in Navan. At the risk of going over old ground, this pairing continues to offer value every time they meet – for five or six years now, there has been little to choose between these counties, and yet the bookies persist in making Meath long odds on favourites every time, whether it’s O’Byrne Cup, league or championship. Wexford have named an experimental team, but Meath are likely to do the same, and the 11/4 from Paddy Powers about the visitors is simply wrong.

Wexford have won five of their last six meetings with Meath in all competitions and have no fear whatsoever of the Royal County. Home advantage and perhaps a little bit more strength in depth is probably worth a  couple of points to Meath, but 8/15 or 1/2 would be plenty short enough about them. Take Wexford to triumph, small stakes only however.

O’Byrne Cup Recommendations

Offaly vs Westmeath: Westmeath @ 11/8 (Boylesports)

Meath vs Wexford: Wexford @ 11/4 (Powers)

Following on from our breakdown of the lie of the land for the big ball players out there, it’s now time to turn our hand to their hurling counterparts and to make our projections for 2012. Listed below is the first part of our series incorporating all counties chasing provincial or Liam McCarthy honours. While we would love to extend the courtesy to the Ring/Rackard/Meaghar counties, unfortunately there is simply too much volatility at that level. One or two little things like an increase or decrease in attention from a county board that previously concentrated on football, or a couple of transfers of good club hurlers from other counties, could make a world of difference and while we do our best to pick up on all relevant information here at Starbets.ie, unfortunately every grapevine hides a few morsels of fruit deep within the branches.

The format is the same as was used for the football columns. Counties are ranked in order of how we see them right now, based on results and form, with the current bookmaker rankings in brackets and our prediction for whether they’ll be moving up or down the ladder over the next twelve months.

14. Westmeath (14 – Improvement)

One swallow does not make a summer, and while they had a good day against Carlow in the Leinster championship, they still deserve to be ranked behind the Dolmen county for the moment, as Carlow have been much more consistent in their play for the past few seasons. However the future for Westmeath hurling, in the medium to long term at least, looks bright. The small margin of their defeat to Kilkenny in this year’s Leinster minor hurling semi final was no fluke and neither was their comprehensive win over Offaly in O’Connor Park earlier in that competition. There are some excellent young hurlers coming up along the line in Westmeath and while 2012 might be a little early for a lot of them, the next five years should see the Lake county men improve hugely. We suspect they’ll begin by taking full advantage of their reprieve in the National Hurling league and by making a real push to win division 2A this spring.

13. Carlow (13 – Slight disimprovement)

For all the moaning and wailing from Limerick and Wexford, no county was more damaged by the decision to remake the national hurling league than Carlow. From a position where they were in a good competitive division 2, involving some winnable games and a chance to hurl against some “traditional” counties, they suddenly find themselves right back in with mostly Christy Ring counties. Crucially, they had a chance to avoid this fate but didn’t know it at the time. They made no effort in the last round of the league against Clare when they believed there was nothing at stake, instead resting some key players and blooding younger hurlers. As it turned out, a win in that fixture would have seen them replace Antrim in Division 1b. However having said all that, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from next year. They’ve regressed at underage level, they still lack dominant players in central positions and while their Leinster championship clash with Laois would have been an ideal draw in 2011, under Teddy McCarthy, Laois should progress well this year.

12. Laois (12 – Improvement)

The decision to bring in one of the most decorated dual stars in the GAA’s history to take charge is a clear sign that Laois hurling intends to make real progress this year. Niall Rigney worked miracles in a difficult environment with the county in recent years, but McCarthy will command even more respect and should be able to get Laois hurling moving in the right direction this year. It’s harsh on Rigney to say that as the Portlaoise clubman is clearly one of the outstanding hurling managers in the game right now, but it’s a simple statement of fact that players will rally around a big name from outside quicker than one of their own. It’s been a long time since Laois people have been able to say with confidence that their best hurlers were all available for selection but they have plenty of glamour league ties to look forward to in Division 1B and a nice draw awaits them in the Leinster championship. Ridiculous though it might sound, Laois will feel they have the beating of Dublin. They don’t, but by shooting for the stars, they’ll still go a long way before they finally fall short.

11. Antrim (11 – Disimprovement)

There is a very real chance that they will have to work without their Loughgiel hurlers for long stretches of the league, and frankly, at any given time Antrim hurling looks capable of imploding. The current standoff with their referees, the debacle that was their attempt at fielding a decent team for the All Ireland semi final against Dublin and the long running bad blood between certain clubs all indicate that there are deep, structural problems in Antrim hurling. Many people in the county celebrated St Galls’ win over Dunloy in the club championship as a sign that hurling was making real progress in Belfast – time may tell that the result said more about Dunloy than it did about Galls. There’s simply no grounds for optimism here.

10. Wexford (10 – no change)

Wexford supporters will look at Offaly, ranked above them, and will ask questions as to why that should be after Wexford deservedly finished above the midlanders in the league. That was even after being asked to play the league game between the two counties in O’Connor Park, when home advantage is traditionally hugely important between these counties. The simple answer is that while they played hard to save their skin in the league, they got the benefit of playing Tipperary when Tipp were in second gear, and when it came to the championship Wexford were hugely disappointing. There are good young hurlers in the county but the sight of Oulart the Ballagh, containing half the county team, playing so poorly against Coolderry in Nowlan Park must have been hugely worrying for Liam Dunne. Indeed Dunne himself failed his tactical exams that day, coming off a distinct second best to Ken Hogan, and with so much work still to be done in the South East, it will be a few years before things get better for them.

9. Offaly (9 – Slight improvement)

As one of the big winners from the league reshuffle, Offaly have been handed a great chance to have a good year in 2012 and with Ollie Baker at the helm, they might just take it. Their one point defeat in Páirc Uí Chaoimh was a huge disappointment and a massive missed opportunity, but it also proved that they have a core group of hurlers capable of troubling the middle tier teams, even if they are still a long way off challenging the big guns. The long term prognosis for the county is very bleak as underage and academy results are appalling, but there is still a strong core group of players there and if David Kenny is finally granted the time to recover properly, they will have a spine capable of competing with anyone. Of course Shane Dooley’s intentions are vital and if he ends up staying in New York he will be almost impossible to replace, but for now they should be looking both to the league and to the Leinster championship with moderate optimism.

8. Cork (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After suggesting that Laois will improve for the recruitment of one famous dual star from Leeside, it seems hypocritical to suggest that the Rebel County themselves won’t benefit for the deployment of an even more famous dual star and former All Ireland winning manager. However 2011 was a terrible year for hurling in Cork and they can thank their lucky stars that they didn’t exit the championship in Páirc Uí Chaoimh against Offaly when a farcical lack of injury time saved them when on the ropes. Against Galway many of their bigger names didn’t appear interested and they just don’t seem to have the leadership they’ll need down the spine of the team. If Cork are good enough to secure a championship win over any of the top four or five counties in 2012, it will mean one of two things – either Jimmy Barry Murphy is a miracle worker, or else every player on the team owes Denis Walsh a huge apology for phoning it in under his leadership. We suspect it won’t be an issue.

Following on from yesterday, let’s continue our pre-Christmas rundown on the state of play of the various counties as they approach the start of the 2012 pre season. As before, the number on the left is their Starbets ranking, the number in brackets is where they are ranked in the betting for Sam Maguire in 2012, followed by our prediction for where they will be ranked this time next year.

25. Sligo (18 – Slight improvement)
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Sligo, who only eighteen months ago had just beaten Galway and Mayo and were odds on favourites to win a Connacht title. They let their chance slip against the Rossies in the Connacht decider, before collapsing against Down in the qualifiers and enduring a terrible season in 2011. Manager Kevin Walsh has some of the best individual defenders in Ireland playing for the Yeats county, while David Kelly is a fine scoring threat, but from 8 to 12 the team is weak and they need to find a lot of improvement this year. Division three should give them a chance to get off to a good start and gain some confidence, but they can ill afford to start slowly and need results sooner rather than later.

24. Cavan (25 – Significant improvement)

2012 is a massive year for Cavan football. The Breffni men have been in the doldrums (as opposed to the drumlins!) for too long now and manager Val Andrews knows that he needs to start turning things around. The success of their under-21 panel last year will provide an invaluable injection of fresh blood into the senior panel and while the poor performance of Cavan Gaels was a disappointment, if they can address issues in the wide defensive positions, they certainly have enough flair up front to cause teams real problems.

23. Tipperary (22 – slight disimprovement)

With new county champions coming from territory that usually doesn’t make a huge contribution to the county team and an All Ireland winning group of minor footballers, the long term prognosis for Tipperary football is very, very bright. However it could be a few years yet before things really start to improve and there is a real danger that too much will be asked of a lot of young footballers before they are ready to deliver. Barry Grogan’s incredible talent will keep them in touch in games but for now, Tipperary should be happy just to hold on to division three status and keep things ticking over for the next couple of years.

22. Louth (20 – Disimprovement)

Not unusually for Louth football, most of their best work was done in the Spring as opposed to the summer in 2011. They enjoyed a good O’Byrne Cup, they got off to a great start in the league but then started to stutter as the ground began to harden, even if they did muster up a big performance in the Division 3 final. However their deterioration continued in the championship and they could be about to learn the same lesson that Mayo did when John O’Mahony was elected to the Dáil – if a manager is working as a TD, he won’t be able to give his county team as much attention as they deserve and results will reflect that.

21. Westmeath (19 – Slight disimprovement)

After deservedly securing promotion in 2011, they may feel hard done by to still be ranked in the bottom half, but it’s hard to ignore two very poor championship performances against mid-ranking opposition. Some very good young footballers have emerged from the Lake County in recent years, even if one of the best of them (John Heslin) is out in Australia, but Denis Glennon has yet to prove that he can carry the team in the same way that Dessie Dolan has done for over a decade now. There is potential for improvement here, but it’s going to be a tough campaign in division 2 and the ominous presence of Dublin in their quarter of the Leinster draw probably limits their capacity, in Leinster at least.

20. Offaly (21 – Slight disimprovement)

They mixed the good with the bad in the league, digging out three crucial away wins while losing out on promotion due to bad performances against Westmeath and Tipperary. This trend continued in the championship with two awful performances and one very impressive one against Monaghan. For 2012, their fate will depend on how their twenty-something footballers grow up in the absence of Ciarán McManus, who played some of his best football last year. The Tubber midfielder was a huge presence in the Offaly dressing room and a new look team is likely to take the field this year – which could be no bad thing, though they will meet more than a few bumps along the road.

19. Antrim (24 – Slight improvement)

The Ulster championship draw has worked out very nicely for Antrim and they’ll rightly believe that they have every chance of making real progress next year. Some of the best young footballers in Ulster should be breaking into their squad very soon and if they can keep a lid on some of the more explosive characters in the dressing room, they have a lot of the ingredients needed to make progress.

18. Longford (23 – Slight disimprovement)

Unquestionably the most improved county in 2011, Glen Ryan has stamped his authority on this team but at the same time allowed the natural, attacking style of the players in the county to flourish. The issue now will be building and sustaining the progress that was made since he took over, a task which should be made easier by the existence of a few very bright young prospects that were part of the Leinster minor winning team in 2010. The old reliable attackers like Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens aren’t getting any younger, but they have some excellent man marking defenders and a lot of good energy around the middle of the field. Their first round battle with Laois in Pearse Park already looks like it could be one of the most enjoyable games in the championship.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

The last entrants into Sunday night’s qualifier draw will be finalised over this weekend, and joining the thirteen counties already in the pot will be the losers of the three provincial quarter finals this weekend. The meeting of Cavan and Donegal has already been discussed here on Starbets, but in Leinster there will also be two quarter finals, the first of which throws in tomorrow night when Wexford play Westmeath.

This writer quite liked Westmeath’s chances of coming out of this side of the draw when the fixtures were laid out, however the Lake county haven’t exactly got the run of the ball since the championship started. Wexford’s win over Offaly didn’t suit them for two reasons – for one, Wexford’s form in that O’Connor Park match was hugely impressive and secondly, they must now travel to Wexford Park, while Offaly would have had to play in Mullingar.

Injury concerns over Dessie Dolan are also a serious worry for Pat Flanagan and while the Garrycastle marksman has been included in the XV to start tomorrow evening, it’s far from certain that he’ll be able to last out the full match. Anyone who doubts how crucial Dolan is to Westmeath’s chances needs only look at their league decider against Offaly, when he was comfortably the main man in the Westmeath attack. Paul Greville and Conor Lynam are both capable young footballers who are well able to take a score, however Paul Sharry is not a scoring forward and neither of the two Glennon brothers are on form right now. Denis is still a threat with ball in hand but he hasn’t been getting enough scores during the league campaign, while David failed to earn a place on the starting team for St Sylvesters in the Dublin championship recently.

The biggest worry in Westmeath however concerns their full back line. Kieran Gavin and Francis Boyle are two fine defenders but neither has been playing up to their potential this year. The third slot in the full back line has gone to Adrian Finney, but neither he nor John Gaffey made a convincing case for the jersey all year long and he’ll certainly be a player that Wexford will look to attack. This line has been vulnerable to long high balls all year and expect Redmond Barry and Eric Bradley to both play a lot closer to goal tomorrow night to exploit this.

Ladbrokes are 12/5 about three or more goals in this game and that price makes considerable appeal in this fixture. Wexford showed plenty of vulnerable in the full back line as well in the first round and Offaly created four good goal chances in O’Connor Park against them. This too will have been noted by Pat Flanagan and he too will be out to take Wexford for a couple of goals in this fixture. Off the Ground believes that the goals expectancy in this game should be as high as 2.1 or 2.2, meaning that this bet should really be offered at no bigger than 7/4 or 15/8 at a push.

The meeting of Louth and Carlow in Portlaoise has attracted far less column inches than any other fixture taking place this weekend, largely because Louth are expected to cruise into the Leinster semi-final with a minimum of fuss. Certainly the Wee men should win this tie, but the battle between Paddy Keenan and Brendan Murphy is very definitely a battle worth watching and if Murphy can get the better of Keenan, then this game could get very interesting. Louth have a much more dangerous attack than their Carlow counterparts, particularly now that JJ Smith misses out, but the selection of JP Rooney is an interesting one. Rooney is a veteran player who can nick a goal at crucial times, but many people feel that a two man inside line featuring Shane Lennon and Derek Maguire would be a better option for Louth right now.

These sides last met two years ago on a miserable day in Parnell Park, Louth holding on to win by 1-13 to 1-11. Louth should win again in Portlaoise, but unless the weather clears up, they don’t look like a good handicap play here.

Our last update before the weekend involves having a quick look at the weekend’s hurling action, which involves one Leinster SHC match and a round of club games in Galway.

Carlow and Westmeath have played out a few thrilling games in recent years, none more so than their excellent Christy Ring Cup match in Tullamore, and these two sides have often measured themselves against one another. However the graphs started moving in the opposite direction this year and under Kevin Martin things started to decline very fast in Westmeath. The decision of their dual players to play football only for the year didn’t help, while more and more players decided that they weren’t happy in the Tullamore man’s regime as time went on.

Martin has departed the scene and Galwayman Brian Hanley has taken over, however coming in at this stage is bound to prove very difficult for a man from outside the county who can’t be too au fait with the players at his disposal or how they respond in different situations. He has been handed a huge boost in the shape of Paul Greville declaring himself available for selection again despite his football commitments, while John Shaw and Darren McCormack, two more top quality hurlers, will be available again after injury.

A lot is being read into Carlow’s poor performances at the end of the league, particularly against Clare, however that doesn’t take away from another very solid campaign up to that point. They are probably three or four points better than Westmeath at the moment, but with Hanley likely to have a better hand to work with than Martin did, it would be a danger presuming that home advantage would carry Carlow over the four point spread that Ladbrokes are offering. We would have been sweet on Carlow earlier in the week, but not so much now.

The Galway senior hurling championship is well underway now with two rounds of games already having been completed. That leaves some teams in the unusual position of fighting for their championship lives in May, while other clubs have the chance of consolidating their place in the knockout stages.

One of those clubs facing a do or die fixture is Ardrahan, who already lost nailbiters to Liam Mellowes and Kiltormer. They play Tynagh-Abbey-Duniry tonight in Athenry, and the 2010 semi finalists are also badly in need of a result after suffering a surprise reverse at the hands of Carnmore last time out. Slow starts were the common theme with these two clubs as all three matches saw the losers make a late push to salvage a win, however Ardrahan have been the more competitive side in their defeats, while they also have arguably faced the better opposition. There’s not a lot to choose between these teams but 7/4 about Ardrahan is enough to suggest a bet.

Craughwell also throw in against Beagh at half six, this time in Loughrea, and these two clubs are undefeated and looking to put themselves in a really good position before the break. Craughwell would have been marginally the more fancied of these two clubs before the year started and on the basis that their win over Gort is by far the better form, they get the call here at 8/11 with Ladbrokes. Beagh plundered Kinvara for goals in the first game, but they’ve since had to endure a bye week and that too may contribute to a slight lack of sharpness on their part.

Finally, for a speculative draw punt, take Kiltormer and Liam Mellowes to finish level at 9/1. Liam Mellowes scrambled over the line against Ardrahan in the first round, but they didn’t look impressive in the closing stages, while Kiltormer has a strong defense and a great freetaker in Keith Kilkenny. These two ingredients often combine to make for a close game against marginally better opponents and with Mellowes likely to be happy to take a draw here, it could come into play.

The last of our preseason football championship previews sends us east, where four of the eleven protagonists chasing the Leinster football championship will get their championship seasons underway this Sunday in O’Moore Park in Portlaoise.

Ladbrokes, in line with most other bookmaking firms, make Dublin the clear favourites and even money about the Dubs taking back the title that they lost in a five goal blitz against Meath last year is obviously the first and foremost talking point. If even money is too short, then there has to be value elsewhere, but if the Dubs are more likely to win than not win, it will be very hard to isolate value anywhere else in the draw.

Certainly if Dublin win Leinster this year, they will deserve it. In all likelihood they will have to go through Laois (the only other division one team from Leinster in 2012), either Meath or Kildare (AI quarter finalists in 2011) and then a Leinster final against the best the other side of the draw can muster up. There’s nothing easy about any game there, except arguably the Leinster Final.

Realistically, there can no longer be any question marks surrounding Dublin’s ability. They beat Tyrone in last year’s championship and but for a lack of self-belief and faith in their own ability to tackle properly, they would have beaten Cork and probably gone on to win the All Ireland. This year they beat both Cork and Kerry in the league before coughing up a League final when their best attackers were taken off through injury – that’s All Ireland winning form by any measure, and it’s certainly good enough to win Leinster. The danger is how affected the team will be by losing the league in such a devastating fashion.

Let’s not forget that Mayo reached last year’s league final, only to be beaten by Cork. The wheels then came off in spectacular fashion in the championship. It could have been two unrelated incidents, or it could illustrate how bringing a bandwagon to shuddering halt could cut deep into Dublin’s psyche.

Let’s be realistic – Longford can’t beat Dublin. They could potentially upset Laois on Sunday, but they cannot beat Dublin in any circumstances – so let’s presume that Justin McNulty’s men come through this Sunday intact, as they should do on all known form. Laois have revamped their back line and they now possess a really fast and powerful unit, well supported by a hard working half forward group. They don’t get a lot of scores from their players wearing 8-12, but Darren Strong scores at a rate worthy of a half forward from left wing back, while Paul Cahillane has caused McNulty just  the right kind of headache with his performance in their league final and he could yet come into the mix and raise a few flags.

12/1 is too short about Laois simply because they will be at least 7/2 to qualify over the Dubs, even then they will be rated little better than 50/50 against the winners of Meath and Kildare, they have a banana skin tie this week and even in a final, any one of Westmeath/Louth/Wexford/Offaly would fancy their chances of an upset against the O’Moore men.

They potentially could upset Dublin, and may be even more likely to do so than Meath or Kildare. We suggest leaving betting on Dublin until after this tie and take the 4/6 or so that will be on offer at that stage – or bigger perhaps, if Meath or Kildare win well.

Again, we will presume for the purposes of this column that Kildare beat Wicklow. Unless Kildare have gone back eight points from last year, they will win this tie. Kildare have been going very well in challenge matches while Wicklow put some effort into the league this year and still couldn’t get out of the basement group.

They should beat Meath too. The current outright odds of 5/1 Kildare and 11/2 Meath simply don’t reflect the fact that Kildare were a better team than Meath last year and Banty McEnaney simply hasn’t got Meath going yet. Playing badly in the league will be forgotten about if Meath come out firing in the championship but there has been little or no indication of any life in the Royal County in any match so far – they’ve lost out to both Longford and Monaghan in challenge matches in the last few weeks, increasing the pressure on the manager.

Kildare in a Leinster semi final should be the biggest threat to Dublin, but they don’t have the strength in depth in their backline to contain the Dublin attack. Dublin’s much hyped zonal defensive system is perfect for counteracting teams like Kildare, since a lot of McGeeney’s system is built around movement in the forwards to create space down the flanks. Add in John Doyle getting older, James Kavanagh not yet on form, there simply isn’t enough basis for backing Kildare.

Four division three counties on the other side of the draw, with Carlow rounding off matters, means that all five teams will fancy their chances of getting to a Leinster final, even if deep down very few will believe that they can win it. Pat Spillane caused a bit of a shock at the weekend by picking Offaly as his dark horse for this side of the draw, and there is some basis for this.

Offaly start with a home game against Wexford and a little bit of momentum here could go a long way for them. They have a fine group of forwards and while they are very naive defensively at times, they will learn a lot from the way Westmeath dismantled their back line in the last league match. They have a lot of games to play, but 25/1 is a big price and could yet come into play.

Wexford must travel to Tullamore for the first round and while they too beat Offaly in the league, that was back in February when teams were a shadow of themselves. Wexford were the better team that day but Offaly again let their naivety shine through when allowing wing back Aindreas Doyle to run riot. If they learn from that, they can secure a win in O’Connor Park.

Westmeath lie in waiting after that and they will be cheering on Offaly, since they would have to go to Wexford while the home and away arrangement between the two midland counties means that a Leinster quarter final between them would be in Mullingar. Westmeath have progressed well under Pat Flanagan and they have a clear and recognisable game plan, involving pulling their wing forwards back and letting Dessie Dolan pull the strings up front.

They have a lot of good young forwards as well, with Conor Lynam, Callum McCormack and Paul Greville all capable of accumulating scores, but they are not well set up for chasing a deficit. Much like any of the modern defensive systems, opponents who don’t come out and attack them leave them with nowhere to go, while their full back line is vulnerable. 14/1 is not bad value and they certainly won’t lack for fitness or strength under Flanagan, but like a lot of teams that rely on getting a dozen players back behind the ball, there is a lack of imagination. That might not prevent them from getting to a Leinster final, but they would be obliterated by Dublin if they got there.

The meeting of Louth and Carlow is something of a banana skin for the Wee County men but if they have any aspirations of achievement this year, they should be winning this one with plenty to spare. Carlow are hugely dependent on a few key players and as always, there appear to be better footballers within their club structure not making the effort to line out for th county team.

Louth should win here, but that will leave them vulnerable to whoever emerges from the Offaly/Wexford/Westmeath group, since their opponent will have at least one if not two very competitive games under their belts. Louth surprised this column with their high level of effort in the division three league final and their greater hunger was illustrated by their total domination of the breaking ball battle. Even then, they came within a whisker of losing a game that they could have won in a landslide. If they ever have to share possession, they could be in real bother.

Their draw gives them a great chance on paper, and 9/1 is not the worst bet in the world, but the hunch is that they will fall at the semi final stage.

Overall, Dublin to beat possibly Offaly but probably Westmeath in the final.

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